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How to Plan for Your Fantasy Football Draft

(And why common sense trumps mathematical precision.)

Written by Lee Harmon, a mathematician, fantasy football die-hard and successful money-winner in Fantasy Football for many years.

Start by Preparing a Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

It's hard to draft without player rankings. If you just pick your favorite players each round, you'll surely lose badly. A cheat sheet of player rankings, where you circle the players you picked and cross off the players everyone else picks, helps keep focus, so that you always know who the best available player is.

The difficulty comes when you have to choose between the best at one position and the best at another. Do you take the top running back or the top wide receiver in round three?

A Value-based draft list provides the answer. In Matthew Hill's rankings below, you'll see a tab labelled All, which ranks all positions together, so you can make educated decisions. But how does Matthew know whether a particular quarterback is more valuable than a particular running back?

Answer: He doesn't. Not really. And he'll be the first to tell you this, even though his rankings are invaluable for what they provide. This is because proper value-based ranking can really only be accomplished through an in-depth consideration of your league rules. It works like this:

What is Value Based Drafting

Let's take an example in a single-year league. Fantasy football keeper rankings are a different animal altogther, so we'll focus on single-year games. How do you determine a quarterback's value, in relation to all the other players?

First, you have to project each player's statistics for the year. These are called Fantasy Football Projections, and various services around the internet provide projections. For example, Quarterback X may be projected to score 30 touchdowns and throw for 4,000 yards. These projected statistics must be translated into fantasy points.

You set a "base value" somewhere in your list of quarterbacks, and hope your chosen base value isn't too arbitrary. For example, if you have 40 quarterbacks projected and ranked, you might decide 20 of them are draft-worthy without digging too deep, so you set the base value 20-deep.

All other quarterbacks above the base are then compared to the base according to their projected fantasy points. If the base-level quarterback at position 20 is expected to score 300 fantasy points this year, then each quarterback above him on the list is measured by his anticipated fantasy points above the base level of 300. This comparison to the base level provides us with a means of comparing players across positions. If the top running back left on your list is expected to score 100 points above the base level on your running back list, while the top quarterback remaining is expected to score 50 points above the base level on your quarterback list, then the running back is more valuable. In fact, he's roughly twice as valuable!

But where you set your base level greatly impacts your rankings. Should you count how many starting quarterbacks will be in your league, and set the base level at 12 deep? Should you figure everybody will draft at least two quarterbacks, and set the base level at 24? Or should reason prevail and you set your base somewhere in the middle...perhaps just a little deeper than 12, because you expect the bench quarterbacks to play just a little?

Had enough of the issues yet? Because all this is fine and well for preparing a mathematical solution, though a bit complex, but in fact the complexity runs much deeper than simple value-based drafting. Here are a number of additional factors that mathematical systems try to incorporate and good drafters tend to work into their draft strategy intuitively:

The Impact of Scoring Rules on Your Cheat Sheet

Of course the scoring rules of your league have a major impact on your ranking system. Your scoring system is what lets you build a value-based draft in the first place, by making it possible to project fantasy points scored, and different scoring rules can shift your rankings considerably.

Consider this: If quarterbacks receive 5 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 20 yards of passing, a top-level quarterback becomes much more valuable than if he received only 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards. Kickers in a distance-scoring league are more valuable than if they receive only 3 points per field goal, regardless of distance. Running backs in point-per-reception leagues are, of course, valued quite differently in standard scoring--that's quite obvious-- but the impact of PPR goes deeper than that. Because the scoring of receivers is higher in these leagues, the stand-out receivers stand out even more, meaning their value-based ranking climbs up the chart in relation to other positions, particularly quarterbacks, who never catch any passes at all.

Factoring in the Reliability of Projections

You may have noticed in the discussion of scoring systems that kickers should climb up the ranking system if they are playing under distance-scoring rules. This is because the top kickers will distance themselves more from the rest (pun intended).

And yet, no decent ranking system ever places kickers very high up on the list. Why not?

Because we all know intuitively that kicker rankings can't be trusted. Nobody can project how a kicker will do. Kicker rankings are comparatively unreliable. A kicker's value depends on his team's ability to get close to the end zone, but lack of ability to punch the ball over the line. You want your kicker's team to score 12 points, not 35.

Another reason for the difficulty in projecting kicker scoring is that kickers typically play the whole game, and play every play where a kicker is needed. Yes, you heard me right. It's easier to value one player above another when you have an idea of how much playing time or how often plays will be called for them in relation to other players. It's hard to measure opportunity when a player gets every opportunity. This is one reason why quarterbacks are hard to evaluate: They typically play the entire game, so something miraculous can happen at any time, and footballs take strange bounces. The same logic works even stronger for ranking defenses, making their projections even more unreliable than quarterbacks.

For these reasons, projections are to be trusted more for running backs and receivers than quarterbacks, and much more than that for defenses and kickers.

Does Roster Depth Matter?

The number of players at each position in your starting lineup strongly influences how a value-based ranking system sees them. Consider this: A standard lineup typically means playing 6 RB/WRs, while a flex lineup means playing 5 RB/WRs. Why would this matter?

Because value-based rankings depend heavily on that somewhat arbitrary base level you chose for each position. Because each team gets to play an extra running back or wide receiver, it follows that the base level for each of these positions should be dropped at least 6 spots, and probably more. The result is that all running backs and all wide receivers climb up the list.

Position Scarcity Means Adjusting Your Draft Plan

The running back position often suffers from position scarcity. Even though there may be enough quality running backs for every team to place a couple in their starting lineup, the fact is, many owners like to draft six or more running backs. We'll talk about why in a bit: for now, the important thing is that it happens. Therefore, the deeper your bench is, the more likely you're going to encounter scarcity at the running back position.

What this means is that running backs may be artificially overvalued. It shouldn't matter, but it does. In leagues where you must start a minimum of two RB's, you may find it prudent to bump running backs up just a little bit in your rankings, to make sure you don't get bitten by scarcity.

Position Durability Impacts Player Valuations

Position durability is a factor often not considered. The fact is, some positions suffer fewer injuries than others. Your starting running back is twice as likely to be injured as your starting quarterback. The bottom line is that quarterbacks are more likely to play, and thus get a bump up the ladder ahead of running backs.

Suppose you're in a flex league, where you only need to play one running back, and can play up to four wide receivers. Clearly, running back scarcity is not a factor in these leagues, and the multiple flex positions means there's little reason to rank running backs separately from wide receivers. But all things being considered, perhaps you should actually rank wide receivers a bit higher than running backs, on the simple logic that they're likely to play on average about one more game per year.

Perceived Value, and How to Use it to Your Advantage

Like running back scarcity, sometimes perceived value can artificially inflate rankings. I've noted, for example, that many drafters simply can't resist taking a quarterback a little earlier than normal. You may laugh at their mistakes and stick tight to your draft list, trusting in your system, but you may be doing yourself a disservice to think this way.

The truth is, you want to be ahead of the runs. Practice with mock drafts until you recognize the point where positions like quarterback or tight end hit a run. Then, just ahead of where you expect it to happen, carefully consider the value of reaching down the draft list a bit, hoping to be the one to kick off the run yourself.

While few cheat sheets will take perceived value into consideration, breaking the rules at the right time can yield surprising results. This comes only with practice.

Calculating the Value of Anticipated Starts

After you fill your starting lineup at the skill positions (QB/RB/WR/TE), what should you do next? Again, the answer is rather intuitive, rather than by simply trusting the draft list. Your decision must take into effect the number of starts you expect of your bench players.

Consider a typical standard lineup of 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE (expecting a wide receiver to play in the flex spot). Then the best wide receiver on your bench is likely to play four times as often as the best quarterback on your bench.

Position durability also plays a role in anticipating the number of starts for your bench players, of course. Since running backs are injured more often than any other position, it follows that the running back(s) on your bench will be pressed into service far more often.

It's starting to look like your backup quarterback isn't so valuable, is he?

Anticipating Your Opponents' Picks

One thing a draft list cannot anticipate is your draft position. Each position, from 1 to 12, requires a little different strategy. I find that the draft spots most rich in strategy are close to the turn: perhaps position 3 and 10.

During the draft, every pick you make should come after evaluating the needs of the opponents who draft between your current pick and your next pick. This is especially true when you pick near the turn.

If your opponents owning the upcoming picks are short on running backs, be sure to bump the running backs a bit up your list. If they all already have their starting quarterback, be sure to drop all quarterbacks down your list a bit.

When To Draft Fantasy Football Sleepers and Handcuffs

In my mind, there are three types of draft picks:

  1. Starters, which you hope to play every game.
  2. Bench players, whom you draft to cover bye weeks and injuries. Most owners carry more bench players than necessary; most are never used all year.
  3. Sleepers (including handcuffs) whom you hope due to circumstances will turn into legitimate fantasy starters.

There is simply no reason to draft any other player. Therefore, after your starters and a few players drafted to sit on your bench, all the rest of your players must be drafted with upside in mind. Sleepers who show talent or the favoritism of the coach; backup running backs who may become bellcows if the starter is injured; players traded to a new team and given a new start; untested rookies.

So when should you take these players? Well, mathematically, one way to approach this question is to take a stab at guessing their chance of playing, and guessing how many games they are likely to contribute. Say, 20% of the games. Then you guess at their production if slotted into the starting lineup of their teams. Finally, you rank them at 20% of the value of a full-time starter at that level of production.

If you follow this exercise, you'll often discover something very interesting. Sleepers are often more valuable than your bench players, and in special circumstances should be drafted as early as the 7th or 8th round. This is a case where value-based ranking has no value at all, and in fact, distorts the true value of sleepers.

Strength of Schedule, and Weighing Some Weeks More than Others

Here's a little hint: Measuring strength of schedule is of very little value when valuing players for the year. There just isn't as much mathematical difference between weak and strong schedules as you would think, and defensive schemes and injuries change circumstances from week to week. It just isn't worth putting too much emphasis on strength of schedule.

However, it is very important to look at the weeks which do matter! You want your kickers and running backs to play weak defenses during the fantasy playoffs (the passing game doesn't suffer as much as the running game and the kicking game against a tough opponent). But there are other factors that you may not have considered.

  1. Among your playoff weeks, don't value the superbowl higher than the semi-finals. In fact, the semi-final matchups are even more important than the finals! This can be proven mathematically, but it should be intuitive with a little thought: If you lose the semi-finals, you won't even have a chance to play in the superbowl.
  2. Regarding the regular season, the early weeks are often more important than the later weeks. This, too, should be intuitive: Teams are more likely to give up after they begin to lose and put up less of a fight later in the season. Additionally, the players you expect to play are more likely to play early in the season than late, because of injury or other issues.

The Secret to Dominating Your Fantasy Football Draft

If you've gotten this far, you're either fascinated by a heuristic approach to player ranking, or you're determined to win. So how can you compete, given the utter complexity of proper value-based ranking?

Answer: common sense. A bit of common sense goes much further than searching out minute advantages mathematically. I'm convinced that the most effective draft strategy is to build and then lean on a good cheat sheet like Matthew's, but then to liberally break the rules by reaching down the list when your turn comes to find a player that you actually feel comfortable with. Know the statistical value but also know the players, know the circumstances under which they play, and use common sense to improve on the odds.

Here are a few of my favorite sites. Some are free, some are pay services.

Good luck, my friend.

Read page narrative Matthew Hill Rankings provided by Matthew Hill on Fantasy Pros       
Player rankings provided by Matthew Hill         

2017 Draft Rankings

(Updated 6/4/17)
#Player (Team/Bye)Posvs. ECRvs. ADP
1David Johnson ARI (8)RB00
2Le'Veon Bell PIT (9)RB00
3Antonio Brown PIT (9)WR0+1
4LeSean McCoy BUF (6)RB+5+5
5Julio Jones ATL (5)WR00
6Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8)WR00
7A.J. Green CIN (6)WR+1+1
8Ezekiel Elliott DAL (6)RB-4-5
9Devonta Freeman ATL (5)RB+2+2
10Michael Thomas NO (5)WR+4+3
11Melvin Gordon LAC (9)RB-1-1
12Jay Ajayi MIA (11)RB+6+2
13Jordy Nelson GB (8)WR-1-1
14Mike Evans TB (11)WR-7-7
15Jordan Howard CHI (9)RB+1+2
16Dez Bryant DAL (6)WR+1+3
17DeMarco Murray TEN (8)RB-2-1
18Doug Baldwin SEA (6)WR+2+7
19T.Y. Hilton IND (11)WR-6-4
20DeAndre Hopkins HOU (7)WR+2+3
21Travis Kelce KC (10)TE+12+12
22Brandin Cooks NE (9)WR+7+2
23Isaiah Crowell CLE (9)RB+11+11
24Alshon Jeffery PHI (10)WR+2+11
25Demaryius Thomas DEN (5)WR-1+6
26Danny Woodhead BAL (10)RB+35+51
27Leonard Fournette JAC (8)RB+4-6
28Amari Cooper OAK (10)WR-9-10
29Jarvis Landry MIA (11)WR+1+7
30Todd Gurley LAR (8)RB-7-8
31Stefon Diggs MIN (9)WR+24+29
32Michael Crabtree OAK (10)WR+8+13
33Marshawn Lynch OAK (10)RB+11-3
34Greg Olsen CAR (11)TE+13+16
35Tom Brady NE (9)QB+8+4
36Julian Edelman NE (9)WR+10+12
37Aaron Rodgers GB (8)QB0-10
38Sammy Watkins BUF (6)WR-6+3
39Lamar Miller HOU (7)RB-14-13
40Allen Robinson JAC (8)WR-12-12
41Bilal Powell NYJ (11)RB+16+23
42Carlos Hyde SF (11)RB-6+2
43Davante Adams GB (8)WR-5-5
44Christian McCaffrey CAR (11)RB-9-12
45Delanie Walker TEN (8)TE+29+38
46Drew Brees NO (5)QB+5+7
47Golden Tate DET (7)WR-8-1
48Keenan Allen LAC (9)WR-21-19
49Tyreek Hill KC (10)WR+10-6
50Jordan Reed WAS (5)TE-9-8
51C.J. Anderson DEN (5)RB+2+5
52Tevin Coleman ATL (5)RB+6+3
53Mark Ingram NO (5)RB-5+13
54Andrew Luck IND (11)QB+20
55Emmanuel Sanders DEN (5)WR-5+10
56Ty Montgomery GB (8)RB-4-9
57Rob Gronkowski NE (9)TE-36-37
58Matt Ryan ATL (5)QB+5+14
59Larry Fitzgerald ARI (8)WR-14-7
60Spencer Ware KC (10)RB-6-11
61Theo Riddick DET (7)RB+6+25
62Jamison Crowder WAS (5)WR-2-3
63Kirk Cousins WAS (5)QB+22+39
64Adrian Peterson NO (5)RB+36+7
65Joe Mixon CIN (6)RB-16-25
66Tyler Eifert CIN (6)TE0+4
67Russell Wilson SEA (6)QB+5+17
68Donte Moncrief IND (11)WR0-6
69Terrelle Pryor WAS (5)WR-27-32
70Pierre Garcon SF (11)WR-5+12
71Ben Roethlisberger PIT (9)QB+31+29
72Dalvin Cook MIN (9)RB-10-11
73Brandon Marshall NYG (8)WR0-16
74Thomas Rawls SEA (6)RB+95+68
75Jeremy Maclin BAL (10)WR+16+32
76Corey Coleman CLE (9)WR+13+19
77Kyle Rudolph MIN (9)TE+2+19
78Eddie Lacy SEA (6)RB-8-11
79Philip Rivers LAC (9)QB+38+35
80Cameron Meredith CHI (9)WR+3+13
81Ameer Abdullah DET (7)RB-17-23
82Frank Gore IND (11)RB-11+6
83Martavis Bryant PIT (9)WR-7-32
84Jimmy Graham SEA (6)TE-15-11
85Robert Kelley WAS (5)RB+25+27
86Kelvin Benjamin CAR (11)WR-9-18
87Eric Ebron DET (7)TE+22+42
88Matthew Stafford DET (7)QB+26+29
89Willie Snead NO (5)WR-14-26
90C.J. Prosise SEA (6)RB+2+7
91Rishard Matthews TEN (8)WR+6+12
92Zach Ertz PHI (10)TE-4+13
93Jameis Winston TB (11)QB-7-2
94Giovani Bernard CIN (6)RB+28+57
95DeSean Jackson TB (11)WR-15-14
96Kenneth Dixon BAL (10)RB+17+10
97Mike Wallace BAL (10)WR+14+7
98Jordan Matthews PHI (10)WR-14+12
99Dak Prescott DAL (6)QB0+9
100Kareem Hunt KC (10)RB+20-1
101Latavius Murray MIN (9)RB+24+10
102Breshad Perriman BAL (10)WR+31+17
103Marcus Mariota TEN (8)QB0+6
104Eric Decker TEN (8)WR-14-3
105Kenny Britt CLE (9)WR-10+32
106Paul Perkins NYG (8)RB-28-27
107Jason Witten DAL (6)TE+30+51
108Tyrell Williams LAC (9)WR+15+14
109Jack Doyle IND (11)TE+9+18
110Jonathan Stewart CAR (11)RB+11+20
111Eli Manning NYG (8)QB+16+14
112Randall Cobb GB (8)WR-18-27
113Quincy Enunwa NYJ (11)WR+17+13
114Alvin Kamara NO (5)RB+25+26
115Julius Thomas MIA (11)TE+49+30
116Matt Forte NYJ (11)RB-12-3
117Derek Carr OAK (10)QB-16-30
118Charles Clay BUF (6)TE+86+97
119Sterling Shepard NYG (8)WR+13+22
120Rex Burkhead NE (9)RB+63+58
121James White NE (9)RB-5-6
122Cam Newton CAR (11)QB-40-33
123Martellus Bennett GB (8)TE-30-31
124Kevin White CHI (9)WR+19+12
125Derrick Henry TEN (8)RB-10-51
126Tyler Lockett SEA (6)WR+33+34
127Tyrod Taylor BUF (6)QB-3+11
128Jeremy Hill CIN (6)RB+21+18
129Devante Parker MIA (11)WR-31-49
130Mike Gillislee NE (9)RB-49-55
131Carson Palmer ARI (8)QB+27+21
132Adam Thielen MIN (9)WR-27-16
133Seattle Seahawks SEA (6)DST+5+20
134Dion Lewis NE (9)RB+16+28
135Will Fuller HOU (7)WR+25+39
136C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU (7)TE+6+32
137Andy Dalton CIN (6)QB-6-5
138Denver Broncos DEN (5)DST-4-5
139Robert Woods LAR (8)WR-4+24
140Jamaal Charles DEN (5)RB-11-20
141Hunter Henry LAC (9)TE-33-47
142Josh Doctson WAS (5)WR-1-14
143Zach Miller CHI (9)TE+34+82
144Houston Texans HOU (7)DST+20
145Jamaal Williams GB (8)RB+27+11
146O.J. Howard TB (11)TE-6-22
147Eli Rogers PIT (9)WR+83+133
148Ted Ginn NO (5)WR-4+9
149Charles Sims TB (11)RB+7+36
150Arizona Cardinals ARI (8)DST+13+11
151D'Onta Foreman HOU (7)RB+62+30
152Carson Wentz PHI (10)QB-7-18
153John Brown ARI (8)WR-41-55
154Joe Flacco BAL (10)QB+36+13
155Kansas City Chiefs KC (10)DST-3-16
156Antonio Gates LAC (9)TE+10+53
157Doug Martin TB (11)RB-61-88
158Marqise Lee JAC (8)WR+12+30
159Samaje Perine WAS (5)RB-40-69
160Los Angeles Rams LAR (8)DST+51+64
161Tyler Boyd CIN (6)WR+64+100
162Vance McDonald SF (11)TE+84+101
163Duke Johnson CLE (9)RB-57-42
164J.J. Nelson ARI (8)WR+15+27
165Jacquizz Rodgers TB (11)RB+17+11
166Nelson Agholor PHI (10)WR+157
167Shane Vereen NYG (8)RB+20+43
168Blake Bortles JAC (8)QB-11-14
169Tavon Austin LAR (8)WR+25+30
170Minnesota Vikings MIN (9)DST-3-11
171Stephen Gostkowski NE (9)K+5+13
172Darren Sproles PHI (10)RB-46-24
173Malcolm Mitchell NE (9)WR+22+50
174Justin Tucker BAL (10)K+4+5
175Dwayne Allen NE (9)TE+57+14
176Steven Hauschka BUF (6)K+38+67
177Ryan Tannehill MIA (11)QB-2-7
178New England Patriots NE (9)DST-7-23
179Cole Beasley DAL (6)WR-11-29
180DeAndre Washington OAK (10)RB+20+27
181Mason Crosby GB (8)K+11+33
182Jared Cook OAK (10)TE+6-9
183David Njoku CLE (9)TE-10-19
184Chandler Catanzaro NYJ (11)K+73
185T.J. Yeldon JAC (8)RB-11+59
186Carolina Panthers CAR (11)DST+5+25
187Brian Hoyer SF (11)QB+44+21
188Austin Hooper ATL (5)TE-23-17
189New York Jets NYJ (11)DST+80+101
190Dan Bailey DAL (6)K-1+3
191Taylor Gabriel ATL (5)WR-5-14
192Jalen Richard OAK (10)RB-12+57
193Marvin Jones DET (7)WR-65-75
194Cincinnati Bengals CIN (6)DST+23+82
195Alex Smith KC (10)QB+4+2
196Evan Engram NYG (8)TE-12-27
197Branden Oliver LAC (9)RB+124
198Baltimore Ravens BAL (10)DST+28+2
199Travis Benjamin LAC (9)WR+116+59
200Oakland Raiders OAK (10)DST+50+30
201Will Tye NYG (8)TE+117
202Brandon McManus DEN (5)K+68+31
203Allen Hurns JAC (8)WR+3-37
204Coby Fleener NO (5)TE-56-57
205Pittsburgh Steelers PIT (9)DST+43+32
206Green Bay Packers GB (8)DST+78+71
207Graham Gano CAR (11)K+59+31
208Sam Bradford MIN (9)QB-6-16
209Laquon Treadwell MIN (9)WR+20+7
210Chris Conley KC (10)WR0+2
211Devin Funchess CAR (11)WR+11+7
212Ryan Mathews PHI (10)RB-4
213Mohamed Sanu ATL (5)WR-17-11
214Buffalo Bills BUF (6)DST+45+21
215Jaelen Strong HOU (7)WR+148
216Chris Ivory JAC (8)RB+47
217Jeremy McNichols TB (11)RB+44+15
218Adam Vinatieri IND (11)K-17-15
219Bruce Ellington SF (11)WR+123
220Sebastian Janikowski OAK (10)K+15+9
221Dorial Green-Beckham PHI (10)WR+143
222Cairo Santos KC (10)K-7+9
223Jonathan Williams BUF (6)RB-26-48
224Torrey Smith PHI (10)WR0+15
225Detroit Lions DET (7)DST+80+68
226Jared Goff LAR (8)QB+29-5
227Jeremy Langford CHI (9)RB+81
228LeGarrette Blount PHI (10)RB-121-150
229Chris Hogan NE (9)WR+11-25
230Matt Prater DET (7)K-18-11
231DeAngelo Williams FA RB+122-33
232Chris Thompson WAS (5)RB-81-50
233Kenny Stills MIA (11)WR-72-50
234Wendell Smallwood PHI (10)RB-15+32
235Chris Boswell PIT (9)K-2+5
236Michael Floyd MIN (9)WR+52
237Devontae Booker DEN (5)RB+25-43
238Jacksonville Jaguars JAC (8)DST-35-21
239Mike Nugent FA K+46
240Vernon Davis WAS (5)TE+49+38
241Brian Quick WAS (5)WR+131
242Jerick McKinnon MIN (9)RB-61+26
243Roberto Aguayo TB (11)K+33+3
244A.J. Derby DEN (5)TE-10
245Cameron Brate TB (11)TE-90-80
246Rashard Higgins CLE (9)WR+91
247Philadelphia Eagles PHI (10)DST+35-19
248Jeremy Kerley SF (11)WR-32
249Tyler Higbee LAR (8)TE+2+30
250Miami Dolphins MIA (11)DST+31+31
251Kendall Wright CHI (9)WR-4+16
252Kamar Aiken IND (11)WR+380
253Tajae Sharpe TEN (8)WR+44
254Phillip Dorsett IND (11)WR+72-3
255Blair Walsh SEA (6)K+43
256Anquan Boldin FA WR+39
257Seth Roberts OAK (10)WR+81
258Robby Anderson NYJ (11)WR-49-31
259Dontrelle Inman LAC (9)WR+80
260Paul Richardson SEA (6)WR-19-6
261Brandon LaFell CIN (6)WR+49+10